National Weather Service
Area Forecast Discussion

1229 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in overnight and remain in control through Friday night with a dry period, though activity to the south may encroach towards the Ohio River Friday afternoon and overnight. On Saturday, the upper ridge moves east and rain overspreads the region from the south ahead of the next low pressure system tracking from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes region Saturday night.



NEAR TERM
UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING
The cold front has worked through most of the forecast area and will continue to push to the east. Cooler air will continue to push into the region overnight with lows generally in the 30s. Visibilities have improved with the passage of this feature and precipitation has diminished, however expect clouds to remain through the overnight. Winds have also increased with the passage of the front with some wind gusts around 20 to 30 mph possible during the overnight hours.



SHORT TERM
6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY
Surface high pressure is expected to build through the middle Mississippi Valley region and into the Ohio Valley resulting in a much quieter weather day Thursday and overnight.

Cloudy skies will see some breaks develop but then the southern system will have high clouds spill in from KY in the late day and overnight. Temperatures will range from 40 to 50 on Thursday and drop to the mid 20s north of the I-70 corridor to around freezing over KY.



LONG TERM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
As a surface high over the Great Lakes at the beginning of the period moves east, southerly flow will increase. A warm front will sharpen up across the Tennessee Valley and lift across the forecast area on Saturday. Overrunning will bring a chance of rain Friday night which will then increase substantially on Saturday. A convective line will likely develop ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the region ahead of the front. Looks like there could be some thunder in western counties with instability decreasing further east and later into the night. Still a bit out in time, but there remains the potential for this to possibly result in damaging winds or brief tornadoes. Additional rainfall on top of saturated ground will keep the flood threat elevated. Looks like a situation where highs could end up being Saturday evening in the wake of the warm frontal precipitation but ahead of the cold front.

Temperatures will tumble late Saturday night and continue falling into Sunday morning with little or no recovery as a secondary front swings through. Strong mixing in cold air advection will result in robust winds/wind gusts with the potential to reach advisory levels in at least part of the area.

High pressure will build in Monday and quickly move off to the east Monday night. Low pressure and a cold front will track across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday resulting in a chance of rain and/or snow. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for the first half of the week.



AVIATION
06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MVFR ceilings will continue through the overnight hours, but ceilings should break out to VFR on Thursday morning. Westerly winds may be a bit gusty overnight (up to 20-25 knots) but these winds should relax during the morning hours, generally persisting at about 10 knots through most of the day.

Late in the TAF period, there will be an increase in mid-level clouds, and winds will become light as they begin to shift to the north and then the northeast.



OUTLOOK

MVFR conditions are possible from Friday night through Sunday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday night. Strong winds are expected on Sunday.